Posts tagged ‘George W. Bush’

April 13th, 2011

Be Skeptical Of Promises Of Fiscal Prudence

In his first address to Congress in 2001, George W. Bush said the following:

Many of you have talked about the need to pay down our national debt. I listened, and I agree. We owe it to our children and our grandchildren to act now, and I hope you will join me to pay down $2 trillion in debt during the next 10 years. At the end of those 10 years, we will have paid down all the debt that is available to retire. That is more debt repaid more quickly than has ever been repaid by any nation at any time in history.

Sound familiar?

From President Obama’s speech earlier today:

So this is my approach to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 12 years. It’s an approach that achieves about $2 trillion in spending cuts across the budget. It will lower our interest payments on the debt by $1 trillion.

Representative Paul Ryan(R-WI) in the Wall Street Journal on April 5th:

Our budget, which we call The Path to Prosperity, is very different. For starters, it cuts $6.2 trillion in spending from the president’s budget over the next 10 years, reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy, and puts the nation on a path to actually pay off our national debt. Our proposal brings federal spending to below 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), consistent with the postwar average, and reduces deficits by $4.4 trillion.

If recent history shows us anything, Americans must beware of any proposal that promises something 10 years from now.  In the next 10 years, we will have had three Presidential Elections and five Congressional Elections.

The longest period of time any member of Congress or President can really promise anything is two years.  Even then, those projections should be taken with a pinch of salt and with the trash out to the curb.

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April 9th, 2011

Tax Question About Paul Ryan’s Path To Prosperity

In his Path To Prosperity, Representative Paul Ryan(R-WI) projects revenues to jump from $2.2 trillion in FY2011 to $3.1 trillion in FY2014.   That is a 40.9% increase in revenues in just three years.  Even if you make the totals inflation* neutral, that is still a 30% revenue increase.  That is quite a jump.

I realize that there will be a revenue jump due to an improved economy, but even keeping at current tax levels, a 30% jump in revenue would be nearly impossible.

If you look at the two seminal tax cuts of the last 30 years(Reagan 1981 and Bush 2001), the three year out revenue intake was nowhere near 30%.  In 1984, tax revenues were only 9.5% above FY1981 levels.  The numbers look even worse for the Bush tax cuts.  FY2004 tax revenues were 5.9% BELOW FY2001 levels.

So here is my question.  When history has shown us that large tax cuts produce a modest rise or even decreases in total Federal tax revenues, why does Representative Ryan forecast and depend on more large tax cuts to increase revenues by an amount four times more than has ever been achieved by similar multi trillion dollar supply-side tax cuts?

 

 

*—-Using the average inflation since 2000(2.5%)

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April 8th, 2011

Beware Of Heritage Foundation Predictions

From the Heritage Foundation in 2001:

One element of the debate over President Bush’s tax plan concerns how it will affect household and government budgets as well as the U.S. economy.2 To assess the plan’s economic and budgetary effects and to help frame this debate, analysts in The Heritage Foundation Center for Data Analysis (CDA) conducted a dynamic simulation of the proposals in the President’s tax relief plan. The final results show that the Bush plan would significantly increase economic growth and family income while substantially reducing federal debt.3 For example:

  • Under President Bush’s plan, an average family of four’s inflation-adjusted disposable income would increase by $4,544 in fiscal year (FY) 2011, and the national debt would effectively be paid off by FY 2010.
  • The net tax revenue reduction, after accounting for the larger tax base that would result from higher employment and faster economic growth under the Bush plan, is $1.1 trillion from FY 2002 to FY 2011, 33.4 percent less than conventional static estimates.

The National Debt is currently over $14 trillion and unemployment is 4.3% higher than when the article was written in April 2001.

 

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November 4th, 2009

I guess the Get Motivated series….

…doesn’t pay like it used to.   Good ole GWB will be “debating” Bill Clinton at Radio City Music Hall in February.  I use quotation mark due to the lack of actual back and forth debating that, I am sure, will not take place on the stage.  I’m sure Bill Clinton will get a huge cheer every time he talks and GWB will get booed.  New York ain’t exactly Decider country.

Former presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush will go head to head in a debate at Radio City Music Hall next February, as part of a series pairing liberal and conservative thinkers called “Minds That Move The World.”

The debate “will be formatted to allow for President Clinton and President Bush to each present their thoughts on a wide range of important current events and national issues through a moderated question and answer period during which the moderator can elicit information and insights into particularly pertinent topics of the day,” according to a press release.

[UPDATE: 42 and 43 have cancelled their appearance due to promotional issues]

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