April 15th, 2011

2012 GOP Presidential Nomination

The 2012 GOP Nomination Page  has been updated.  Please go and check it out here.  Predictably, there have been quite a few changes in the last 2 weeks.

 

  • Sarah Palin’s numbers are falling everywhere.  She even lost the lead in two of the states(including Alaska) she led two weeks ago.  If she is going to run, she needs to make a move soon.
  • Mike Huckabee, while looking less and less likely like he’ll run, continues to impress throughout the country.  He picked up two more states(the two that Palin lost) and would be the odds on favorite if he decided to run.
  • Romney is still a strong second in the delegate count, but the last 2 weeks have not been good for him.  He hasn’t lost any states, but if this downward trend continues he will.
  • Donald Trump is doing quite well in the newest polls, however, that he barely registers in my averages.  Why?  My averages count polls over a period of time with the most current polls weighed more heavily than older polls.  While this gives more importance to newer polls(which would help Trump), the inclusion of older polls also rewards consistency and diminishes the likelihood of statistical anomalies in any particular poll.  If Trump stays high in the polls, the upcoming projections will reflect that.

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April 13th, 2011

Be Skeptical Of Promises Of Fiscal Prudence

In his first address to Congress in 2001, George W. Bush said the following:

Many of you have talked about the need to pay down our national debt. I listened, and I agree. We owe it to our children and our grandchildren to act now, and I hope you will join me to pay down $2 trillion in debt during the next 10 years. At the end of those 10 years, we will have paid down all the debt that is available to retire. That is more debt repaid more quickly than has ever been repaid by any nation at any time in history.

Sound familiar?

From President Obama’s speech earlier today:

So this is my approach to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 12 years. It’s an approach that achieves about $2 trillion in spending cuts across the budget. It will lower our interest payments on the debt by $1 trillion.

Representative Paul Ryan(R-WI) in the Wall Street Journal on April 5th:

Our budget, which we call The Path to Prosperity, is very different. For starters, it cuts $6.2 trillion in spending from the president’s budget over the next 10 years, reduces the debt as a percentage of the economy, and puts the nation on a path to actually pay off our national debt. Our proposal brings federal spending to below 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), consistent with the postwar average, and reduces deficits by $4.4 trillion.

If recent history shows us anything, Americans must beware of any proposal that promises something 10 years from now.  In the next 10 years, we will have had three Presidential Elections and five Congressional Elections.

The longest period of time any member of Congress or President can really promise anything is two years.  Even then, those projections should be taken with a pinch of salt and with the trash out to the curb.

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April 13th, 2011

LEGO pr0n

[hattip: MAKE Magazine]

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April 13th, 2011

Twitter’s History Not As It Seems

Gawker just published a great piece on the whitewashing of certain elements of their history.  It’s hard to argue that Evan Williams made the wrong decision to force out Odeo co-founder Noah Glass, but you still must feel for Glass for being denied the credit he deserves for the creation of such a game changing platform.

Odeo cofounder Noah Glass gravitated toward Jack Dorsey, whom Glass says was “one of the stars of the company.” Jack had an idea for a completely different product that revolved around “status”—what people were doing at a given time.

“I got the impression he was unhappy with what he was working on – a lot of cleanup work on Odeo.”

“He started talking to me about this idea of status and how he was really interested in status,” Glass says. “I was trying to figure out what it was he found compelling about it.”

“There was a moment when I was sitting with Jack and I said, ‘Oh, I do see how this could really come together to make something really compelling.’ We were sitting on Mission St. in the car in the rain. We were going out and I was dropping him off and having this conversation. It all fit together for me.”

One day in February 2006, Glass, Dorsey, and a German contract developer Florian Webber presented Jack’s idea to the rest of the company. It was a system where you could send a text to one number and it would be broadcasted out to all of your friends: Twttr.

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April 13th, 2011

Joe Biden Felt The Same Way About Obama’s Speech As I Did

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April 13th, 2011

Speech Live Blog

12:55—-Five minutes in and I have no idea where this is going.

12:56—-Speech so far: Lincoln, Rich pay (Shattner Pause) a bit more, “By the grace of God go I”, What?

12:57—-”Tax cuts that went to every millionaire and billionaire in the nation.”  Hate to break it to you Mr. Obama, but the Bush tax cuts went to everyone.

12:58—-Obama: Financial problem was cause by Bush tax cuts…..He mentions nothing else.

12:59—–I knew it.  Works in “Winning The Future.”

12:59—- Verbal scorecard so far: “Vision”=1, “Balanced”=1, “Middle Class”=2.

1:01—-This speech seems very disjointed.

1:04—-This speech needs to be at least an hour long if he is going to say anything of substance.

1:05—-”Plan from Republicans.”  No mention of Paul Ryan.

1:06—-First mention of Simpson-Bowles Commision.  Surprised it took sixteen minutes.

1:09—-GOP plan”ends Medicare as we know it.”  Maybe you don’t want vouchers, but we need to end Medicare as we know it.  Something has to give financially.

1:10—-Obama: 33 seniors have Medicare cut to give him tax break.  That’s a powerful talking point.  You’ll hear that a lot over the next 3 months.

1:12—- Verbal scorecard: “Vision”=1, “Balanced”=2, “Middle Class”=3.

1:13—-This speech is aimed at the elderly.

1:13—-Obama: We will make cuts that will add up to 750 million over 12 years. Specifics, sir.

1:16—-Obama: We will save money on health care by making health care cheaper.

1:17—-So far, no specifics.  None.  ZERO.

1:18—-Verbal scorecard: “Vision”=2, “Balanced”=2, “Middle Class”=3.

1:19—-Obama refuses to renew Bush tax cuts just like he did in 2008.  Sure you won’t, Mr. Obama.

1:23—-The GOP is going to work over Obama today.  No specifics, raising taxes, etc.  The bully pulpit has not been used.

1:27—-Verbal scorecard: “Vision”=3, “Balanced”=4, “Middle Class”=4.

1:29—-Obama back to the beginning of the speech….throwing words together just to see how they sound.

1:30—-Who wrote this thing?   This needed to be a focused and wonky speech.  Instead, we get 40 minutes(and counting) of just nothing.

1:32—–……..and, it’s over.  Thank god.

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April 13th, 2011

Barack Obama: The Fellowship Of The $14 Trillion Ring

If you haven’t heard, President Obama is unveiling his plans to eliminate the Federal Budget deficit and slow the growth of or National Debt.  While most Americans will want to hear specifics, I choose not to set myself up for disappointment.  There will be few specifics.

Instead, be prepared to get a Presidential peppering of generalities about “vision” and “balance.”   The few sentences that may come close to containing specifics will be quickly followed by the terms “$250,000″ or “Simpson-Bowles Commission.” Guaranteed.

For the amusement and sanity of the general public, I give you my predictions for President Obama’s speech on fiscal speech.

 

  • Obama will utter the words “Vision” and “Balance” no less than ten times each.  ”Middle Class” will seep through at least five times.
  • Obama will do his best to tie in his now-defunct slogan from his State of the Union–”Winning The Future”–but no one will know what he is talking about.
  • I see a red tie in Obama’s future.
  • Paul Ryan will not be mentioned by name, nor will his Path To Prosperity.  Instead, we will hear about the “Republican Plan.”
  • Donald Trump will crash the speech with what he claims is a never before seen tape of Obama’s mother giving birth to the Presidential Baby in a Nairobi hospital.  Instead, it will be another tape of something never before seen–The Apprentice, Season 10.
  • John Boehner will cry.

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April 13th, 2011

Hillary Clinton Still Owes Mark Penn 329K

Mark Penn was the Chief Strategist for the Hillary Clinton 2008 Presidential Campaign.  He took a former First Lady and sitting Senator that was well liked within the Democratic party that had a fifteen point lead over all other contenders in June 2007 and the endorsement of her husband and Democrat-in-Chief, Bill Clinton, and managed to lose to a first term Senator with no policy accomplishments.

If anything, Mark Penn should be paying Hillary Clinton $329,000.

From Politico:

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign ended in the summer of 2008, but in the first three months of the year, her still operational campaign committee raised $63,000 – primarily by renting its email list to allies – and paid off $75,000 in debt to its pollster Mark Penn.

According to a report filed last week with the Federal Election Commission, Clinton’s campaign committee ended the first quarter with $329,000 in debt – all to Penn’s firm, to which the Clinton campaign once owed nearly $5.3 million.

$5.3 million for the political equivalent of missing a 3 foot putt to win the Masters?  Nice work if you can get it.

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April 12th, 2011

Ann Coulter To Birthers—”You Can’t Believe Everything You Read On the Internet”

“Obama has produced his birth certificate. There were announcements that ran in two contemporaneous Hawaiian newspapers at the time. The head of the Hawaiian medical records has announced, ‘I have seen the long form you all want.’ I don’t know why the long form is considered more credible than the short form. They’re both from the same office. The State Department accepts the short form or as we call it, the birth certificate,” Ann Coulter on FOX News.

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April 12th, 2011

Doctor Who—New Trailer For Season 6

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